Asian Americans in Swing States Could Help Elect Kamala

By Jennie L. Ilustre

In the 2020 elections, Joe Biden became president, helped by Asian Americans in battleground states who provided the winning margin.

Vice President Kamala Harris, whose mother was South Asian American originally from India, was Biden’s running mate. In this year’s election cycle, this data-based analysis becomes relevant to her chance of victory on November 5.

Remarked Varun Nikore, Executive Director of the AAPI Victory Alliance: “The Asian American and Pacific Islander or AAPI electorate will be extremely pivotal in this election, and even more so than we were in 2020. AAPIs are the fastest growing segment of the population in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina. In each of these battleground states, an energized AAPI electorate will be able to determine who our next president is.”

Historically, AAPI voters have favored Democrats. NBC News reported a recent poll showed that 66% of Asian Americans back Harris, while 28% plan to vote for Trump. However, they cite her gender as a motivating factor, not her Asian roots. Indeed, polls show majority of women voters favor Harris, citing one of her top issues: reproductive rights. Women make up 51% of the nation’s electorate, and they reliably turn out to vote in every election cycle.

South Asian Vote

There are 400,000 eligible voters of South Asian descent in the hotly contested swing states, according to an NBC News story. Of this number, 235,000 have become naturalized voters since 2020. That is, they will cast their first vote this year.

In the last two presidential elections, Indian American voter turn-out was the highest of any Asian American group, on par with white voter turnout, according to AAPI Data. “I would expect that turnout to be even greater with Harris on the ballot,” NBC quoted AAPI Data Co-Founder Karthick Ramakrishnan as saying.

Polls, however, point to a close election, with Harris and former President Trump tied, or leading but within the margin of error.

Republican Susan Au Allen, CEO and Founder of the US Pan Asian American Chamber of Commerce (USPAAC), said in an email interview that the top issues on voters’ mind favor Trump: pocketbook, safety and border security.

Allen also reflected on the impact of Vice President Harris’ historic candidacy as the first Asian American woman to run for president. 

Remarked Allen: “That would bring more visibility and ‘face’ to the Asian American community. It may change the narrative of the Asian American experience, help to deter the continuing anti-Asian American bias and sentiments, and leave a level playing field to pursue their own American Dream.”

15 million AAPI Voters

About 15 million Asian Americans are projected to be eligible to vote in 2024, according to the respected Pew Research Center, up from 15% in 2022. That’s a mere 6.1% of the nation’s qualified voters. But as community leaders point out, they are spread out in swing states like Nevada, which has 11% Asian American voters.

In an article posted at the APIAVote website, writer Domenico Montanaro, noted that “with exit polls showing that President Biden won Asian American voters by an almost 2-to-1 margin, they very well may have been the difference in his victory – despite only being roughly 4% of the electorate overall…”

The May 22 article quoted a veteran Democratic strategist who runs TargetSmart, a Democratic election data provider, as saying, “Across all of the presidential battleground states, AAPI turnout increased by 357,969 votes, a breathtaking 48% increase in turnout.”

Montanaro cited a recent Census data which showed that Asian Americans increased their turnout rate by more than any other racial or ethnic group between the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections. “Their turnout jumped 10 percentage points, while Hispanic and white voters each increased by 6 percentage points, and Black voters ticked up 3 points.”

AAPI Victory Alliance Executive Director Varun cited voter increase and expansion and record-breaking voter fundraising favoring Harris. Raising over $100 million in a week “shows Vice President Harris’ ability to not only raise the funds necessary to compete, but also capture growing momentum to expand the electorate – including youth voters, Indian American and the AAPI and Black electorates.”

“She also made headway with many of the subgroups that were not enthused about the original ticket,” he said, referring to the Biden-Harris pair.

Population and Political Power

APIAVote, which tracks voter data, noted in an email: “Since 2010, the Asian American population has boomed by 38.6% and the Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander population by 29.5%–these make our communities among the fastest growing ethnic groups in the country (Census). This population increase is tied to our increasing political power. It’s reflected in the growing number of elections where our communities have outpaced the margin of victory, such as in several crucial races in battleground states like Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

“…Young AAPIs saw their voter turnout rate increase by 17% from 2016 to 2020, faster than any other racial group.

“We expect AAPI voter turnout to build on its historic success in 2020 and 2022, and to be particularly crucial in determining the presidential election – especially in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.”

Top Issues for Voters

USPAAC CEO and Founder Allen said in an email interview that the top issues on voters’ mind favor Trump. She noted: “Former president Trump has the advantages of pointing to and holding the Biden-Harris Administration accountable for inflation and the high cost of living, open borders in the south that allowed 20 million illegal migrants into the country from all over the world including criminals, and drug and sex traffickers, and the high crime rates.”

“These are the top three issues on the voters’ mind–pocket book, safety, and security,” she stressed.

“Vice President Kamala Harris did not have the support of the American people or the popularity that President Biden has enjoyed since their election in 2020,” she added.

“Her fortune swiftly changed after President Biden announced he would not run for re-election after a disastrous debate with former President Trump, and endorsed her for President,” she added. “In one week, she amassed over $100 million in campaign contributions and more are coming in. That is impressive.”