Signs Point to a ‘Blue Wave’ As Pandemic is Top Issue

By Jennie L. Ilustre

 

Signs point to a ‘Blue Wave, a Democratic sweep in this year’s elections, according to polls and analyses by political experts. Reason: The pandemic, as well as the narrowing of President Trump’s base as women, suburbanites, and seniors have flipped for his Democratic rival Joe Biden.

 

Three Asian American leaders, who have grassroots experience in campaigns and media coverage of elections, also see a Blue Wave: Democrats winning in the presidential and senatorial races.

 

They also note the Trump Administration’s mishandling of the pandemic, the president’s approval rating below 50%, the minorities (Asian Americans, Hispanics) splitting their vote but tilting towards Biden, as well as many Republicans, led by Never Trumpers, voting for former Vice President Biden.

 

Manila Mail National Editor Bing C. Branigin said it would be a Biden landslide. “There will be a huge turn-out of the Democratic base this time. A result of lessons learned from the 2016 presidential elections, when majority of them did not go to the polls, thinking Hillary already had it in the bag.”

 

Down the wire, polls show a tightening of likely voters’ choice in battleground states. An impressive Insider Monkey analysis of 2016 and 2020 polling showed a scenario in which Trump could score an upset, especially if he wins Florida–but with the caveat that the analysis did not factor the 2020 mail-in ballot, it concluded days before the election that the result “is still extremely uncertain.”

 

Most of the polls and analyses, however, see the momentum is with the Democrats. A CNN Wall Street October 21 story quoted Chris Krueger, Cowen Washington Research Group policy analyst, as saying the most likely scenario is for a “Biden Blue Wave,” with Democrats taking at least 52 seats in the 100-member U.S. Senate.

 

Polls show the Democrats are also poised to keep their majority in the House of Representatives.

 

Pandemic

Branigin pointed out on October 24: “If you watched the last presidential debate yesterday, you could tell who has the leadership needed in a national crisis.”

 

She added: “Voters are fed up with the current administration’s lack of national strategy in dealing with the pandemic that has resulted in loss of lives and jobs, and also business closure. President Trump’s personal attacks on Dr. Anthony Fauci have not helped, either.”

 

Since 1984, Fauci has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Fauci has a track record in the nation’s programs successfully tackling the HIV crisis and the Ebola epidemic. As the country continues to set records for new covid-19 cases, the media reported Fauci has urged on October 24 that it was time for a nationwide order to use face masks.

 

Landslide

For years, Branigin has engaged in voter outreach and voter education as a volunteer for APIAVote. APIAVote is a national non-partisan organization that promotes civic engagement of Asian and Pacific Islander Americans (APIAVote).

Observing the political climate, she mentioned three things that would help lead to a Biden landslide. “In the 2016 presidential elections, majority of Democratic voters did not go to the polls, thinking Hillary already had it in the bag. It would be a huge turnout this time.”

 

“The Asian American Democrats have been very aggressive in their approach, from donations from big donors and also small donations online, to voter registrations, and voting,” she noted.

 

“Grassroots-level campaign has been very effective. Many new registered voters are for Biden/Harris,” she said, referring to vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Senator Harris’ mother was Indian American and her Father is Black.

 

Branigin added: “Also noteworthy is the fact that many Republicans are voting for Biden and other Democratic Party candidates.”

 

News reports abound of seniors, college-educated white women, and suburban women fleeing from the Republican Party in this election cycle, concerned over health care in the midst of the pandemic and the divisive political climate.

 

Media outlets predict either a close race or a landslide for former Vice President Joe Biden, whose coattails could lift Democratic Senators to victory. “There could be a change at the Senate level,” said Branigin. “Trump has made it difficult for the Republican Senatorial candidates to win.”

 

Currently, the Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. But in this election cycle, Republicans have 12 endangered Senate seats, while the Democrats are only facing two probable losses in the Senate race.

 

Two Republican Senators predict bleak outcomes. With President Trump down in the polls, The New York Times reported that in a conference call with constituents, Senator Ben Sasse (Nebraska) criticized Trump’s handling of the covid-19 pandemic and cozying with dictators, adding, “I’m now looking at the possibility of a Republican bloodbath in the Senate.”

 

The report also quoted Senator Ted Cruz (Texas), who warned of a “Republican bloodbath of Watergate proportions.”

 

Approval Rating

Jon Melegrito, who worked in the presidential campaigns of President Obama and former Senator and First Lady Hillary Clinton, cites President Trump’s approval rating, which has consistently been below 50%, as a factor in the election result.

 

Melegrito said on October 25: “More than 230,000 Americans have died due to Trump’s inept mishandling of the pandemic. Millions have lost their jobs. The Republicans are rushing through a Supreme Court appointment while dragging their feet on much-needed relief legislation.”

 

Melegrito, an Asian American civil rights advocate, added: “The American people have had enough and are poised to vote out Trump and his enablers in the Senate. Democrats will no doubt retain the House, assuring Democrats complete control of both the White House and Congress.”

 

Big Stakes

Gregory A. Cendana is a former Executive Director of the Asian Pacific American Labor Alliance (APALA), AFL-CIO. Currently, he is the President of Can’t Stop! Won’t Stop! Consulting, and Co-Founder of People’s Collective for Justice and Liberation.

 

“It is clear that the future of democracy, racial justice and the country’s response to the coronavirus are all at stake and on the ballot this election,” he said.

 

He pointed out: “If Democrats are victorious in winning the White House, US Senate and other offices up and down the ballot, it will be because of a wave of Black, indigenous and people of color who were channeling the energy from the summer of protests in defense of Black life, and their righteous rage over the mishandling of COVID-19 by Trump and Republicans, to the ballot box.”