Impeachment Impact on the Presidential Elections

By Jennie L. Ilustre

 

 

The Democratic-dominated House of Representatives, voted to impeach President Trump on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congressional investigations on December 18 last year, along party lines.  The acquittal of the president in the Senate, which is mandated by the Constitution to hold a trial, is also expected to be along party lines. Republicans enjoy a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

 

Polls have shown the country is likewise split on whether the Senate should remove the president or not. One thing is for sure. Long after the historic impeachment votes in Congress, the issue will linger and affect many things, including legislation on infrastructure, voting rights, immigration, health care and gun control in the increasingly partisan current Congress, and of course, the November 3 presidential elections.

 

The impeachment issue will also affect the primaries and the November re-election races for all 435 congressmen and congresswomen and a third of the100-seat Senate in the U.S. Congress, as well as governors.

 

Rodney Jaleco, associate editor of the Manila Mail, advanced this viewpoint: “Impeachment is a political process. Republicans control the Senate and if anything has become evident over the past three years, they’re all afraid of Trump, especially with an election looming.”

 

He added: “The Senate has become a Trump rubber stamp, and many of the Republican senators and Congress Members are just plain intimidated of being “primaried” out by Trump partisans. Their position is to acquiesce to the president, get to the vote as quickly and quietly as circumstances permit it and move on to November when voters can affirm or reject the trial’s outcome.”

 

It used to be that winners are determined during the general elections in November. Not anymore. A lot of times, the winners are decided during the primaries, giving more weight to the expression “running scared.”

 

Fundraising and Voter Turn-out

The impeachment issue has spurred political contributions and is sure to motivate voters to turn up in large numbers in November, or in early voting.

 

Remarked Adi R. Sathi, who used to work at the Republican National Committee: “The President is already benefiting from the added fundraising dollars coming into his re-election campaign from his frustrated supporters who want to see the Democrats in Congress move on to other issues.”

 

“In the upcoming November elections, the effort and energy put forth by the Democrats throughout the impeachment process will likely backfire, and the electorate could end up punishing them for wasting their time and government resources,” he said.

 

He added: “The Articles of Impeachment that passed the House of Representatives, thanks to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, will die in the Senate. A two-thirds vote is required to remove a sitting President and there are not enough Democrats to make this happen. In the end, it will become even more evident to the American people that this was a partisan party-line process.”

 

“The Republican Senators who acquit Trump fail do their duty, so it’s up to the American voters–who are the real jurors in this trial–to render their verdict,” said Jon Melegrito, a Democrat who is a veteran of presidential campaigns.  “I am confident there will be more voters who will cast their ballots and say NO to the president’s abuse of power and reject a second term because they believe an unaccountable president is a threat to democracy and the rule of law. Trump’s challenger will need to appeal to those who voted for Trump in 2016 that he is unfit to be president.”

 

“I believe the American people will respond and make the right choice in November. As only the third president in American history to be impeached, that will be a permanent taint in his record. And voters will no doubt take serious note of what that means to the Constitution and to our democratic institutions,” he pointed out.

 

APA Organizations

Asian American organizations of both parties have strong opinions as well, fueled by the impeachment issue. Dewitha Soeharjono of the Democratic Asian Americans of Virginia said states have been trending blue (or Democratic), as demonstrated in the 2016 midterm elections.

 

She commented: “The impeachment issue will make a big impact on the presidential elections. You’ll see the changes happening in Virginia, with the state assembly flipped blue from red. And in counties like Fairfax, Loudoun, Arlington, Alexandria, Prince William, where Asian population is high, Democrats control or hold majority in local offices from school board to state Senate. There’s only one Republican left in Fairfax County.”

 

Filipino American Republicans of Virginia (FARV) Founding President Vellie Dietrich-Hall said the issue would result in a big turn-out of the Republican voters, and even the conservative Democrats. She stressed, “The partisan impeachment fiasco undermines the voters’ intelligence that ticked off many, many voters including the conservative Democrats, and infuriated the Republicans.  Their anger will definitely be carried out in the November elections. More grassroots Republicans are more motivated to go out and vote.”

 

Issues

Aside from the impeachment controversy, there are other issues that can decide the outcome of the presidential elections. Several polls have indicated Health Care would be among the top issues. Political experts have also cited the economy.

 

Republican Sathi pointed out even Americans of Asian ancestry have benefited from the economy. “The top issue of concern for all voters, including Asian Americans, is the state of the economy. Under President Trump’s leadership, Asian American unemployment has reached record lows. In June 2019, the lowest ever unemployment rate for Asian Americans was recorded at 2.1%. The Asian Pacific American community was the biggest beneficiary of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act with an average tax cut of $2,560. Also, Asian Pacific American buying power hit 1 trillion in 2018.”

 

“Along with the economy, Asian Americans will be focused on legal immigration and education. Both of these issues have proven to be a high priority for the Trump Administration,” he added.

 

Irene Bueno, Partner at the Nueva Vista Group, LLC, and former Presidential Assistant on Domestic Policy in the Clinton White House, noted: “November is so far away so I’m not sure what the salient issues will be to voters at that time. Today, health care is definitely an issue that motivates voters, but there are also other issues of concern, including making sure that our country gets back on the right track with respect to the economy, education, immigration, and our position as a world leader worthy of respect and admiration.”