U.S.-China Relations Complex, Will Remain So

By Michelle Phipps-Evans

Forty years ago an American president who had built his political career as a hard-line anti-Communist shocked the world by opening doors between the U.S. and China. Richard Nixon went further, personally visiting the Asian giant in a trip which produced the “Shanghai Communiqué,” a statement of foreign policy views gingerly worked out between the two nations. Today, the world has dramatically changed, but the relationship between the United States and China remains extremely complex. This deeply influences the affairs of the two countries, according to U.S. Rep. Richard Larsen (D-WA), co-chair of the bipartisan congressional U.S.-China Working Group.

“There’s not a U.S.-China relationship, there’re several relationships. It’s several layers of engagement between the countries,” Larsen said at the 2012 Congressional US-China Forum, called “U.S.-China Relations: Long Term Vision and Next Few Years.” It occurred Dec. 12 at the U.S. Capitol building, sponsored by the China Society, a District-based nonprofit, educational organization promoting understanding of China.

Larsen, who has worked on policies to enhance the bilateral relationship, said that with unprecedented growth, China is one of the fastest growing export giants in his home state of Washington and in the rest of the country. Some, he noted, see that as a threat to the United States, which he doesn’t accept. “That’s the old thinking,” said Larsen. “China has been able to bring its people out of poverty, making an investment in itself. That’s positive for the world.”

The gap between the two countries’ relative strength is narrowing, which may be leading the sense some have that America feels “threatened.” In 2001, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) accounted for 12.8 percent of US GDP, equal to $1.15 trillion, and it ranked sixth in the world. By 2011, China’s GDP had reached $7.3 trillion, accounting for 48 percent of US GDP, and moving up in rank to second in the world. Given China’s territory, population and economic size, this development was unprecedented.

Along with Congressman Larsen, the forum featured a panel of speakers, moderated by Michael Marshall, editor emeritus at United Press International. On the panel were Dr. Ming Wan, professor of government and politics at George Mason University; John Dickson, chairman of the World Trade & Development Group and chairman of the China Society; and Dr. Nan Li, visiting scholar, Brookings Institution, Associate Research Fellow, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The Pew Research Center has tracked Americans’ changing attitude toward China. In March 2011, 53 percent of Americans surveyed thought it was more important to build a strong relationship with China, compared to 40 percent who wanted tougher policies. But by October 2012, more Americans (49 percent) supported a tougher attitude toward China than building a closer relationship (42 percent).

This may have explained why the U.S. election in 2012, saw candidates using tough rhetoric concerning China’s economic policies.

“This is something we ask all the time,” said Dr. Wan, 52, who has been at George Mason University since 1991. “China may not be solely to blame for everything but China is rising so it’s a concern for the U.S.” Wan noted during the panel discussion that during the campaign season, any mention of China led to what he felt was forceful language from both President Barack Obama and challenger, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. The political rhetoric seemed to contradict the findings in the 2012 U.S.-China Public Opinion Perceptions Survey by the Committee of 100, released last April. It showed that 55 percent of the general American public views China favorably, a three percent increase from 2007, the last time the survey was done.

Fortunately, said Gary Locke, the U.S. Ambassador to China, the Chinese realize that much of the political identification of China as “public enemy number one” is just posturing. During a conversation on Dec. 17 with ABC New journalist George Stephanopoulos and Orville Schell, director of Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations, Ambassador Locke stated, “They know presidential candidates get tough on China during elections, but they are more moderate as they govern. “We’re constantly reinforcing the message that we have two totally independent branches of government, that the Congress does not necessarily speak for the United States.”

Wan warned that two countries will soon face major challenges because of major differences in their interests and value systems. For the long term, however, he said he is full of optimism for the relationship between the two countries. “The conflicts between the U.S. and China are not direct, and they mostly come from outside sources such as the Korean Peninsula, Japan, Taiwan, Southeast Asia, etcetera,” said Wan. “Furthermore, the interaction between the people of the two countries deepens every day, helpful in resolving misunderstandings and conflicts.”

In November, both the United States and China decided upon their leaders will be to usher in the next chapter in the two countries’ relationship over the next critical years. The U.S. electorate gave President Obama another four years, and the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China saw Xi Jinping replace Hu Jintao as Communist Party General Secretary. He is expected to become President, China’shead of state, in March 2013, when the National People’s Congress convenes.

Chairman Dickson sees as positive both the commercial relationship and the people-to-people exchange working toward long-term peace and development between China and the United States. His formula for success: “Even greater promotion of the relations between the two countries, helping to promote an improvement in the environment for Chinese enterprises to invest in the U.S., increasing trade cooperation between China and America,” he said.

Although the media have reported some cases of failed investments, the potential for Chinese investment in the U.S. is huge. American regional governments warmly welcome Chinese investment, as long as they avoid a few areas closely related to national security.

Dr. Li, who studied at North Korea’s Kim-Jong Il University, talked about the cooperation and the differences between China and the U.S. on issues related to North Korea. He believes that even though China has definite influence over North Korea, and hopes North Korea will learn from China’s experience with opening and reform, North Korea’s core ideology hinders the direct exertion of Chinese influence.

One member of the packed audience volunteered that he welcomes an increase in healthy relations between China and the U.S.

“I would like to see the U.S. and China sign the fourth communiqué; the mainland and Taiwan achieve a peace pact as soon as possible; the Korean peninsula, Central Asia and the Middle East denuclearized; all countries reduce their military expenditures; and science and technology applied solely to improve life quality instead of killing,” said Hunter Huang, 86, president of the National Association for China’s Peaceful Unification. “I am making these statements on behalf of the young generation.”